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Friday, August 25, 2006

A worker’s market

Hawaii suffered through another month of ultra low unemployment in July. It was just 3 percent, more than a third lower than the national rate.
Although nobody would likely trade Hawaii’s vibrant economy for a declining one, success has brought its problems, especially for employers. There’s a “Help Wanted” sign in almost every store window. Although it’s less visible, there are empty chairs in businesses of all kinds. Requests for services are often met with, “Can’t do it this week.”
It makes you wonder what the 19,750 Hawaii residents who were supposed to be looking for work in July and not finding it were holding out for.
According to the analysis by the Department of Labor and Industrial Relations, even that very low figure of 19,750 may overstate the unemployment picture.
Now that public schools have moved to a single year-round schedule, with only a six-week “summer,” there were fewer summer schools than before this year and therefore fewer summer school jobs.
Another big chunk of “unemployed” were striking nurses on Kauai, who have since gone back to work.
Even an apparent rise in joblessness in the leisure/hospitality sector may have been more apparent than real. According to DLIR, the shift from less pronounced seasons in the visitor industry has led to steadier work throughout the year. The peak is lower but the bottom of the valley is higher now.
There are several dark linings in this silver cloud.
The big one is housing. The housing supply has expanded a lot less than the economy has. That drives up rents, usually faster than wages.
This is largely a self-inflicted wound. One thing Hawaii is not short of, for better or worse, is developers.
The upside is, it’s pretty easy to find that second job if you want one. The downside is, you may need to get one whether you want to or not.

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